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Been a while since I’ve posted.  I do apologize MMA fans.  Things have just been so busy with work, school, and attempts to take over the world.  Nevertheless, I have returned and I think I’ve got some good picks for you guys on this one.  Betting lines are primarily based on BODOG LIVE MMA LINES.

Good results of +2.24 units at UFC 103 brings my overall total to +.39u.  Dos Santos, Griffin, and Dos Anjos–our three biggest bets–all came through for us.  My only regret is not going heavier on Dos Santos.  Clearly, Cro Cop is not the man he once was.  Though a very special part of me took delight in seeing Dos Santos dismantle his opponent, it was also sad to see a legendary warrior look absolutely terrified to be in a fight.  Can he come back and secure a win at UFC 110?  Only time will tell, but that’s a discussion for another time.  I’m just happy to see that we’re now in the positives.  Now’s the time to really get ahead with UFC 108, a card that I think really favors the bettor, especially if you were fortunate enough to get many of the lines when they first opened.

Note:  All lines come by way of Bodog and BetUS.

Junior Dos Santos (-300) vs Gilbert Yvel (+240)

Hey, look who it is!  It’s Junior Dos Santos (9-1)!  The same kickboxer-turned-MMArtist who won us money at UFC 103 is back to do it again at 108!  And I am confident that he will be able to do this.  To say that I’ve been impressed by JDS is an understatement.  I find the combination of speed, power, and precision that he’s displayed in his three UFC fights to be nothing short of awesome.  The only thing that raises questions in my mind about his ability is the quality of opponents he’s faced.  Werdum, while most likely being next in line for a title shot had he won his fight with JDS, has never been known for his striking and, in my opinion, he has looked pretty lackluster in his Strikeforce bouts since he was released from the UFC.  Struve, while being a fine competitor, is young and inexperienced.  And Cro Cop, while a legend, is fading fast.  Nevertheless, I would bet on Junior Dos Santos against ANY heavyweight in the UFC right now, provided the odds are right, and I think that he may be the one to take Brock’s title away from him.

Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1, 1 NC), the man who drew the short straw to face JDS in this upcoming bout, is a powerful striker who is coming off of a recent KO of Pedro Rizzo and is 8-1 in his last 9 fights.  As impressive as this is, he’s a one-trick pony who can punch hard, but that’s about it.  His technique is sloppy, he moves at about half the speed of JDS, and his ground skills are non-existent.  It should be noted that with heavyweights, it only takes one punch to put a fighter out and Yvel has a real chance to land that punch.  However, I think that the chance of this happening is even less than the 29% that the oddsmakers are giving him.  I expect JDS to outclass his opponent in all facets of the game.  On the feet, JDS will be faster, more technical, and probably at least as powerful; on the ground, where Yvel is a fish out of water, JDS, who is rumored to have very solid ground skills, should be able to dominate his opponent.  Therefore, even at this high price, I think JDS is well worth a bet.  3 units on Junior Dos Santos.

Martin Kampmann (-225) vs Jacob Volkmann (+185)

LOL.

Man, Joe Silva’s really making it hard on Volkmann.  First he gets to lose to Paulo Thiago and now the Hitman.  Martin Kampmann (15-3), who holds wins over Drew McFedries, Thales Leites, and former WEC welterweight champ Carlos Condit, is a formidable fighter who is dangerous both standing and on the ground.  A kickboxer before venturing into the world of MMA, the Hitman not only can stand and strike, but also has solid grappling and submission skills which makes him dangerous no matter where the fight goes.  His opponent for this fight, Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann (9-1), had his UFC debut against the Kos Slayer, Paulo Thiago, in which he spent three rounds getting outgrappled and outclassed.  Despite Volkmann’s impressive record, all of his wins have come in smaller gateway orgs for the UFC, against guys that most people have never heard of .  While this in itself is not a bad thing–everyone has to work their way up–it also does not conclusively prove that he is ready for UFC level competition.  After seeing his performance against Thiago, I won’t say that he doesn’t deserve to be fighting for the organization, but for God’s sake, let the man get some wins and gain some confidence against lower level competitors.  Why throw him to the wolves immediately?

I expect this fight to be a relatively easy win for Kampmann.  Volkmann, a submission artist who appears to have no striking skills, should have nothing for Kampmann on the feet.  Not only does he simply not possess the necessary abilities, but he will be at a height , reach, and size disadvantage.  (Remember that Kampmann is a former long-time middleweight who dropped down to 170 only two fights ago.)  On the ground, it’s tough to call.  Six of Volkmann’s nine wins have come via submission, so it’s possible he may have an advantage there.  It will probably be in Kampmann’s best interest to not risk it and simply keep the fight standing where he should be able to dominate the action in spectacular fashion.  However, even if it does go to the ground, I expect that Kampmann’s strength and ground skills will be enough to keep him out of any serious danger.  3 units on Martin Kampmann.

Jake Ellenberger (-130) vs Mike Pyle (Even)

Anyone who saw Ellenberger/Condit at UFN 19 witnessed an absolute war and what is, in my opinion, one of the greatest first rounds in MMA history.  Jake Ellenberger (21-5) gave Condit the fight of his life and he would’ve won it by stoppage if it weren’t for a ref who had brought his A-game that night.  Over the course of 26 fights, Ellenberger has proven that he has great striking, real KO power, and good wrestling and submission skills.  The one chink in his armor that I can find is his cardio.  He tends to gas out in later rounds, or at least slow down noticeably.

Mike Pyle (19-6) is a submission specialist who holds wins over Shonie Carter and a young Jon Fitch.  Out of his 19 wins, 17 have come by submission.  In the UFC, he is 1-1, getting subbed in the first by Brock Larson and winning via guillotine against that assclown Chris Wilson (1-3 in the UFC).  His striking is very rudimentary, he has very little in terms of power, and despite the fact that he is a grappler, his wrestling leaves something to be desired.  His primary skill lies in his ability to stay patient until he sees an opening for a submission.  To give credit where credit is due, he is very good at that one thing, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to beat Ellenberger.  I predict that Pyle is going to get outstruck and outwrestled by Ellenberger, who will be smart enough to avoid Pyle’s subs and will take the fight either by (T)KO or decision.  I think a more accurate line for this fight would be -150/+120.  If you were paying attention when the lines came out, then you were able to get Ellenberger at -115.  But even at the current line I believe there’s value, so 1.3 units on Jake.

Steve Cantwell (+160) vs Vladimir Matyushenko (-200)

Steve Cantwell (7-3) faces UFC and IFL veteran Vladimir Matyushenko (23-4) in this light heavyweight match-up that is, in my opinion, very much a needed win for the last reigning and defending WEC LHW champion.  After dissolving the LHW division in the WEC, Zuffa brought the title holder over to the big leagues, with Cantwell making his UFC debut at UFN 16 against the Afro Samurai, Razak al-Hussan.  He impressively dislocated al-Hussan’s elbow with an armbar in a first round finish that got people talking, not only about his technique but also about his bewildering post-fight comments in which, referring to the elbow dislocation , he mentioned that he’s “always wanted to do that.”  However, since that fight, he’s gone 0-2 in the UFC, dropping decisions both to Luiz Cane and (suprisingly) Brian Stann.  Another loss could possibly spell doom for Cantwell’s run in the UFC, at least until he picks up some wins outside of the organization and finds his way back in.

Vladimir Matyushenko is a veteran fighter who has managed a career record of only four losses in 27 fights.  He has fought for the UFC, the IFL, and Affliction, among other MMA organizations.  He is a wrestling specialist who, while never being known as a striker, has shown improvements in that area in his last several fights.  What he lacks in technical precision, he makes up for in power.  On paper, Matyushenko’s advantages are numerous.  He’s a better grappler, he’s stronger, he has more punching power, he’s more experienced, and he’s faced–and beaten–better competition.  However, I think that Cantwell’s chances in this fight are really better than the 38% chance that they’re giving him.  He is undoubtedly the more technical fighter of the two and I suspect that he’ll also be faster.  Matyushenko, though experienced, is somewhat of an aging warrior and barely more than a year away from his 40th birthday.  Also, while it’s not his specialty, Cantwell is no slouch in the grappling department himself.  I think that if he can successfully stay outside of the clinch and pepper his opponent with strikes, Cantwell can take a decision here.  He’ll want to stay away from Vladimir’s takedowns and power punches while picking him apart with his superior kickboxing, which I think he has a reasonable chance of doing.  For that reason, I’m suggesting a moderate .5 unit bet on Steve Cantwell.

Paul Daley (-115) vs Dustin Hazelett (-115)

Paul “Semtex” Daley (22-8-2) made an impressive UFC debut at UFC 103 against Martin Kampmann, stopping him in the first round via TKO.  He is a proficient muay thai practitioner whose exceptional punching power has secured 17 (T)KOs in 22 wins.  His opponent, Dustin Hazelett (12-4), is a BJJ specialist, with 9 of his 12 wins coming by sub, many in the first round.

I expect this to be a close fight that could go either way.  Ultimately the winner should be determined by who is able to administer their specialty–striking or submission fighting–in the most dominant manner.  Out of Daley’s eight losses, five have come by submission, so clearly this is a weakspot in his game.  And of Hazelett’s four losses, two have come by TKO, most recently at the hands of Josh Koscheck at UFC 82.  I think the line on this one is fairly well set, though I’d probably call it a 55/45 split for Daley, bringing his true line closer to -122.  My reasoning is that Daley should be able to handle Hazelett on the feet and his takedown defense–clearly evidenced in his fights with John Alessio and, to a lesser extent, Nick Thompson–should prevent Dustin from getting the fight into his realm where he can he secure a submission.  I think that it will take a powerful takedown artist–someone who will really have to strength to work for the takedown and make it happen through brute force–to get Daley down and sub him and I’m not sure that Hazelett has this ability.  If you watch Hazelett’s fights with Tamdan McCrory and Diego Saraiva, you’ll notice that THEY took HIM down, not the other way around.  Daley won’t even think about doing this and therefore will not play to his opponent’s strengths.  With that said, I don’t want to underestimate Hazelett.  He has some very technical and creative submission skills, and I would not at all be surprised to see him make the submission-prone Daley tap out.  Probably a lot of variance in this fight, but I’d still give a small edge to Daley, at least enough for a 1 unit bet.

Suggested Bets:

Junior Dos Santos:  3 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann:  3 units to win 1.33 units
Jake Ellenberger:  1.3 units to win 1 unit
Steve Cantwell:  .5 units to win .8 units (Underdog pick for UFC 108)
Paul Daley:  1 unit to win .87 units

Results are 2-3 for my picks for UFC 102, which brings my overall total to -1.85 units.  Couture was unable to overcome a Nog who looked the best he has ever looked in the UFC, Jardine proved that his weakness against aggressive brawlers wasn’t just a 2-time fluke, and a chubby Leben came into his fight looking like he didn’t even train (and, in fact, there are reports suggesting that very thing).  On the other hand, Vera came in and performed much as I expected, winning a dominant decision over Soszynski, and Marquardt sent Maia into the upper atmosphere of the Earth.  Unfortunately, it was not enough to get us into the black.  Oh well, onward on and upward.  Let us now turn our attention to UFC 103, which will be coming up on September 19.  You might as well call it UFC 103:  The Return.  Not only will we be treated both Frank Trigg’s and Vitor Belfort’s first Octagon appearances in over four years, but Cro Cop is back and–he claims–better than ever and looking to make a run for the title.  For betting purposes,  overall there are some good bets here, but in my opinion the lines could be better.  You have to look hard to find the value and the margins are relatively narrow, but there is still money to be made at UFC 103 on Sept. 19th.

NOTE:  All lines come by way of Bodog.

Junior Dos Santos (-135) vs Mirko Cro Cop (+105)

Junior Dos Santos (8-1) exploded onto the UFC scene when, as an extremely heavy underdog, he landed a vicious uppercut and sent heavyweight contender Febricio Werdum into La-La Land.  He then went on to defeat up-and-comer Stefan Struve via TKO in the first minute of the first round of their bout at UFC 95 and has since been talked about as one of the hottest prospects in the heavyweight division.   In his native Brazil he built a 6-1 record in MMA and an 18-0 record in kickboxing.  He has fast hands, is very explosive, and possess devastating KO power.

Mirko Cro Cop (25-6-2) is a former PRIDE Open Weight Gran Prix champion and has fought and beaten a Who’s Who of legendary MMA fighters, including Kazushi Sakuraba, Mark Coleman, and Josh Barnett among others.  He has defeated notable opponents in K-1, including Jerome Le Banner and Mark Hunt.  His left high kick is synonymous with fools getting knocked out.  And he was expected to come across the ocean in 2007 and quickly establish himself as the premiere heavyweight fighter in the UFC.  Unfortunately for him and his legion of fans, that plan did not work out.  Suffering a shot-heard-round-the-world KO loss to Gabriel Gonzaga (via head kick, no less) and dropping a decision to Cheick Kongo, Cro Cop went 1-2 in his initial UFC run and quickly departed for Japan.

Most people believe that this fight will be determined by one thing:  Which Cro Cop shows up.  He claims that he is fully healed from the physical ailments that has kept him from fighting at 100% of his potential and that he is ready to make a run for the title.  If that’s true then Dos Santos is in trouble.  However, color me skeptical, but I’m not sure I can believe it.  Cro Cop hasn’t beaten a top-level opponent in–as of this writing–exactly 3 years to the day and even in his recent TKO victory against Mostapha Al-turk he didn’t look spectacular.  Dos Santos, on the other hand, is young, hungry, and looks ready to not merely have the torch passed, but to take it by force.  In my opinion he has all the tools to do so and Cro Cop will have his hands full with this young gun.  Provided Dos Santos can stay away from any of Cro Cop’s power shots then he should be able to use his speed and power to win this fight.  But if not, he might have to go retrieve his head from the third row.  If you can get Cro Cop at +120 or better, then it wouldn’t be a bad bet.  But at the current odds, I’d  suggest a 1 unit play on Junior Dos Santos.

Tyson Griffin (-285) vs Hermes Franca (+225)

Tyson Griffin (13-2) is a striker/wrestler who holds wins over Clay Guida, Gleison Tibau, and Urijah Faber and whose only two losses come from Frankie Edgar and  Sean Sherk.  Hermes Franca (19-7) is a striker/BJJ fighter who holds wins over Nate Diaz, Spencer Fisher, and Jamie Varner and who, coincidentally, also has losses to Frankie Edgar and Sean Sherk.

Both fighters bring unique skills and abilities into the cage and I expect a good fight.  Franca has recently been training with kickboxing wizard Rob Kaman and I believe that this is evident in the improved striking that he has displayed in his last several fights, including the absolute leg kick clinic that he put on against Marcus Aurelio.  He has also demonstrated that he has KO power in his hands and I think that the stand-up advantage in this one probably goes to Franca, but only by a small margin.  Likewise, he will also have an advantage in the BJJ department and is known for his explosive ability to pull a sub out of nowhere.  However, there’s one problem for Franca:  Griffin has never been KOd or submitted.  His only two losses have been by decision.  Furthermore, Griffin will have an exceptional advantage in the wrestling department and Franca has always demonstrated an extreme lack of take-down defense.  In the end, I expect this fight to look a lot like Franca/Sherk or Franca/Edgar.  Griffin will utilize his wrestling to take Franca down, control him, and punish him with effective GnP en route to a win via unanimous decision.  I think that even at the current line there is value in Griffin, as he wins this fight 75%-80% of time.  3 Units on Tyson Griffin.

Frank Trigg (+350) vs Josh Koscheck (-550)

Josh Koscheck (12-4) first gained exposure to UFC fans through his appearance on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter and has since gone on to become a Top 10 ranked welterweight, with notable wins over Diego Sanchez, Dustin Hazelett, and Chris Lytle.  He is an NCAA Division I wrestling champion who, as of late, has not only shown excellent wrestling technique but also much-improved standup.  Frank Trigg (19-6) is a UFC veteran, former UFC welterweight title contender, and former ICON Sport middleweight champion.  He holds a black belt in judo and was a 2000 Olympic Trials Finalist in wrestling.  He holds wins over Dennis Hallman, Jason Miller, and Edwin Dewees, and is 4-0 in his last four fights and 6-1 in his last 7.

I have to start by saying that Josh Koscheck has gained my respect.  He’s a fighter who has greatly improved his game since he began competing, morphing from a one-dimensional wrestler to a dynamic fighter who can take the fight anywhere.  He frequently demonstrates a never-say-die attitude and has a ton of heart.  In preparation for this article, I went back to watch his fight with Thiago Alves for a second time, and I was impressed by the fact that even when he was getting soundly beaten up, he kept coming forward and kept the fight competitive.  Most of his wins of late have come by way of his impressive striking, in which he does not merely box, but uses both his hands and feet to punish his opponents and secure victory.  This was evident in his TKO win over Dustin Hazelett as well as his highlight reel KO over Yoshiyuki Yoshida.  However, his win over Chris Lytle proved that he has not abandoned his wrestling roots, as he spent the majority of that bout controlling his opponent on the ground and GnPing his way to a unanimous decision.  With that said, I do believe that it’s a mistake to count Frank Trigg out of this fight.  He is a well-rounded fighter who, while perhaps not great in any single aspect of the game, is good in all aspects.  He can wrestle, he can strike, and he can secure a submission if the opportunity presents itself.  Furthermore, four of Trigg’s six losses are by submission and Koscheck hasn’t submitted anyone since 2006.  I believe that his takedown defense will make it difficult for Koscheck to get the fight to the ground, and on the feet anything can happen.  Believing he was the second coming of Chuck Liddell is what got Koscheck KTFO in his fight against Paulo Thiago.  Doing so again may prove to be his downfall against Trigg, who gave KO artist Robbie Lawler a decent run for his money in 2007 (up until the knockout, that is).  All in all, I would have to agree with consensus opinion that this is Koscheck’s fight to lose, but at +350 Trigg is being underrated and is worth a small bet.  .25u on Frank Trigg.

Rafael Dos Anjos (-125) vs Rob Emerson (-105)

Season 5 TUF alumni Rob Emerson (8-7) faces off against Rafael Dos Anjos (11-4) in this lightweight match up, with both fighters wanting to turn their ship around after losses to Kurt Pellegrino and Tyson Griffin, respectively.  This fight is particularly critical for Dos Anjos, whose only history in the UFC is going 0-2 in his two fights with the organization.  If he doesn’t win this one, then it could be the death blow to his career in the organization with only one thing lying in his future:  STRIKEFORCE.

Stylistically, I believe this is a good match up for Dos Anjos.  Emerson is primarily a striker and his abilities on the ground are limited.  Dos Anjos, on the other hand, is very strong on the ground and, at least in my opinion, occasionally shows some of the same technical pizazz that BJJ wizard Demian Maia is known for.  If this were a kickboxing match then Emerson should be the clear favorite, as he has very solid stand up skills combined with KO power, as evidenced by his 12 second knockout of Manny Gamburyan.  But this is MMA.  I think that Dos Anjos–whose hands actually aren’t that bad–will be able to hold his own on the feet long enough to get Emerson on the ground.  This may not be the easiest of tasks–Emerson has shown that he has decent, but not great, takedown defense–but it should be one he can accomplish.  After all, he was able to take Jeremy Stephens to the ground and dominate him for the first round of their fight and he was also able to engage A-class wrestler Tyson Griffin in a grappling battle in which he locked him up in one of the weirdest and most wicked leg compression techniques that we’ve ever seen in the sport (see above pic).  I believe that Emerson has one path to victory:  To catch Dos Anjos with a shot that puts him down and out.  Barring that very real, but unlikely, possibility, then Dos Anjos should be able to take this fight to the ground and win either via submission or unanimous decision.  When the lines first opened, Dos Anjos was the underdog across all books.  Even now, some still have him as the underdog, so if you have multiple accounts, shop around.  But underdog or favorite, money on Dos Anjos should be money well placed.  I’m looking forward to him gaining his first win in the Octagon.  1.5 units on Rafael Dos Anjos.

Cole Miller (+125) vs Efrain Escudero (-155)

Cole Miller (15-3) is a submission specialist with a 4-1 UFC record, including a unanimous decision win over Leonard Garcia and a submission win over Jorge Gurgel.  He currently trains out of Coconut Creek, Florida with American Top Team.  Efrain Escudero is the TUF Season 8 lightweight winner, having impressively defeated the much-hyped Phillipe Nover in the finals.  This is his first fight in the UFC since the end of that season of the show.

This is a difficult fight to call for the simple fact that we have no idea how Escudero will do in the UFC.  Time and again we see guys look very good on TUF and then either wash out or only look average once they have to step up in competition (I’m looking at you, Mac Danzig).  Will Escudero be able to perform at the same level against guys like Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout, much less Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, or Frankie Edgar?  Only time will tell.  But one thing is for sure, and that is that Cole Miller will provide a good test of his abilities.  With 15 wins and only 3 losses, he has proven that he is a tough fighter who knows how to win.  He has fought both in the United States and in Japan and he is one of the few lightweights who routinely finishes his opponents with his excellent submission skills.  Interestingly enough, both fighters have had the majority of their wins come by way of submission–10 for Miller and 9 for Escudero–and neither fighter have themselves been submitted in a fight.  This suggests that the bout will most likely be won in other ways (though after seeing Miller submit BJJ ace Gurgel, anything is possible and I would probably give a small edge in submissions to Miller).  In the stand up department, Miller may have a slight advantage due to his superior height and reach.  However, in the wrestling department, I would say that Efrain clearly is the leader.  He has very good takedowns and top control, and seems to be difficult for guys to escape from once he has his hands on them.  In the end, I’d say this fight is pretty close to a pick ‘em and at +125 I’d say Miller is worth a small bet due to his edge in experience and the fact that Escudero’s performance against true UFC competition is a question mark at this point.  We’ll find out soon enough if he deserves to be in the UFC.    .5 units on Cole Miller.

Suggested Bets

Junior Dos Santos:  1u to win .74u
Tyson Griffin:  3u to win 1.05u
Frank Trigg:  .25u to win .88u
Rafael Dos Anjos:  1.5u to win 1.2u
Cole Miller:  .5u to win .63u

This man is Brett “The Grim” Rogers.  He holds an undefeated professonal mixed martial arts record of 10-0.  He defeated former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andre Arlovski by vicious knockout in 21 seconds in the first round, just this past June.  He is going to be Fedor Emilianenko’s first challenge under Fedor’s new Strikeforce contract.  The odds for this bout came out about a week ago on Bodog’s live MMA lines at +500.  It then rapidly dropped to +475, then +450.  Now, at the time of writing this article, the line is down to +425.  MMA fans and gamblers alike are putting their money on Rogers early, causing his line to lose value at a rapid rate.  Why not?  He’s strong, he’s fast, he’s proven himself as serious competition, and he’s very hungry.   Does he have what it takes to defeat the one that some consider to be the pound for pound greatest fighter on the planet?  That will be answered this fall, when the men meet at Strikeforce’s biggest and best card yet.  Some will say this is a great underdog bet, while Fedor’s hardcore fans will say you’re throwing your money away.  No matter which side of the fence you are on, one must always remember, this is MMA.  Anything can and will happen.  If you are planning on putting some money on Rogers, do it before the line loses anymore value.

Welcome to the first in a series of articles in which I try to help you, the gambler, take the gamble out of betting on MMA by offering an informed opinion on upcoming MMA events and the fights in which the smart bettor can gain an edge.  You can make money by betting on your favorite sport, and throughout the coming months I intend to offer my picks with a full analysis of each fight that I feel is worth throwing your hard earned money on.  I will also be keeping a public record of my virtual bankroll–that we still start off at 0 units–and its ups and downs, with the goal of seeing it slowly trend upward  as each new event passes.

Note:  All betting lines come by way of Bodog.  They are trusted, fast and offering a 10% bonus on deposits for new account.  Lines may shift, so check the Bodog lines by clicking HERE or the Bodog Lines link at the top of the site.

 Randy Couture (-180)  VS  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)

Randy Couture (16-9) takes on Antonio Nogueira (31-5-1) in this bout between aging warriors attempting to wind down their careers on an upswing.  However, despite being 13 years his senior, in many ways Couture has looked like the younger fighter as of late.  He was a game opponent against the monstrous Brock Lesnar, who later made very short and brutal work of then-interim heavyweight champ Frank Mir.  By contrast, Nogueira has looked decidedly zombie-like in his past few bouts.  He was rocked early by Heath Herring with a head kick and could have very well been finished in that fight had Herring not been so terrified of Nog’s ground game, but instead let Nog come back to take a decision; he was a walking punching bag against Tim Sylvia, before pulling a miracle sub out of nowhere; and he was thoroughly beaten down by Frank Mir in his last fight and finished for the first time in his career (yeah, staph infection, I know).  Many believe that Nogis simply no longer the fighter he once was and the beatings he has taken are beginning to catch up with him.

I believe that Couture will be ready for this fight.  He will be healthier in mind and body and ready for a win after tasting defeat at the hands of Lesnar.  I think that he is better than Nogueira in all aspects but one:  the submission/ground game.  Randy has better boxing, is better in the clinch, and possesses superior wrestling.  I think that he will use all of these skills to control and outpoint Nogueira while keeping himself out of harm’s way on the ground.  If Nog comes in fully recovered from his condition during the Mir fight, expect Randy to win via decision.  If not, expect a TKO.  Now with that said, there’s no denying that Nog has a special ability to pull subs out of thin air, and that’s always a possibility.  He could possibly be a worthwhile underdog bet, but not at +150.  Therefore, for all the reasons listed above I suggest a 1 unit play on Randy Couture.

Keith Jardine (-155)  VS  Thiago Silva (+125)

The technoviking Keith Jardine (14-5-1) meets the Brazilian bomber Thiago Silva (13-1) in the octagon at 102, with both fighters hungry for a win after suffering losses by way of Quentin “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida, respectively.  I feel that ultimately this fight is a mismatch.  What we have is a mid-level fighter in Silva trying to move up to the next level.  We’ve seen this before, most recently in Michael Bisping’s bout against Dan Henderson.  Unfortunately for Bisping, it resulted in him going sleepy-time at a most inopportune moment.

As a fighter, Jardine is an anomaly.  How does a guy who can take on and beat the likes of Brandon Vera and former light heavyweight champs Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell also have losses to Houston Alexander and Stephan Bonnar?  Despite the fact that he does seem to have some weird inconsistency problem, I think that just as likely an explanation is that he is a maturing fighter.  Experience counts for a lot and I don’t think that the guy who dropped a fight to Bonnar is the same guy who will be facing Thiago Silva come August 29th.

Keith Jardine has shown that he can beat anyone on any day, even the guys at the top of the division.  I can’t say that I have the same faith in Silva.  Don’t get me wrong, with his brawling Chuteboxe style, he has all the makings of a fine mid-level fighter.  He has wins over James Irvin, Tomasz Drwal, and Houston Alexander.  But to be perfectly honest, I think that fighting guys like that is exactly where he belongs.  He basically follows the same game plan every time:  Rush in, get rocked, lose the first minute or two while suckering his non-ground-game-savvy opponent into taking him down, and then find his way to the mount so that he can pound away until the ref pulls him off.  This is the sort of thing that works perfectly against the Houston Alexanders of the world–and to his credit once he gets on top he seems very hard for fighters to buck off–but I think he’s going to need more than that to beat Jardine.  In my opinion he has one way to win this fight, and that’s to rush in and surprise Jardine with pure aggression in the same way that Wanderlei Silva did when he was crushed him inside of one minute.  Barring that, I have little doubt that Jardine will use his take-down defense, leg kicks, and pinpoint punches to pick Silva apart en route to a decision win, if not a TKO.  My suggestion?  1.5 units on Keith Jardine. 

Brandon Vera (-200)  VS  Krzysztof Soszynski (+160)

Brandon Vera (10-3) continues his light heavyweight romp through the rankings, this time taking on TUF  season 8 alumni and IFL veteran Krzysztof Soszynski(18-8-1).  Vera, former heavyweight title contender who once pompously proclaimed that he would one day hold both the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles, has realized that he is undersized for the HW division.  Instead of going up against the Lesnars and Carwins of the world, he has instead decided to drop down to LHW, where he has failed to make the splash that he was hoping for.

With that said, he is 2-1 at LHW and could very well be 3-0 if not for losing a very close decision to Keith Jardine.  I personally believe that Vera has been overrated in the past and has never had what it takes to beat the very top fighters of whatever division he chooses to fight in.  However, I do believe that he will beat most everyone else.  Of his three career losses, all have been against top talent, and his fight with Febricio Werdum ended controversially, with many people decrying an early stoppage.  I feel that what we have here is a situation very similar to Jardine VS Silva, in which one fighter is attempting to move up to the next level of competition.  And as I predicted for that fight, I do not think the move will be a successful one.  Soszynski is currently riding a 6 fight win streak.  While that’s very impressive and I do feel like the guy has a lot of talent, most of his wins have come against mid-level guys.  Submitting Brian Stann (who is known to have almost no ground game) and KOing Andre Gusmao (who is now 0-2 in the UFC)  is not the same as facing a fighter of Vera’s caliber.  Vera has never been submitted in his career, so Soszynski slapping on his trademark kimura is probably out.  Furthermore, I also don’t think that he will be able to control Vera on the ground or outpoint him in a striking war.  That leaves one path to victory for Krzysztof:  He must either knock Vera out or daze him badly enough to rush in for the TKO.  I don’t think this is outside of the realm of possibility, as he has demonstrated that he does, in fact, have KO power.  But I think that ultimately Brandon Vera will be able to use his superior muay thai and solid take-down defense to pick his opponent apart and secure a victory by way of a unanimous decision.  This line initially opened at -115 and a good bit of the value has already been bet out of it.  Nevertheless, I give Vera a 70% chance of winning this  fight (-233) so there’s still a little left for those of you who didn’t hop on the Veramobile early on.  1.5 units goes the way of the Phillipines.

Nate Marquardt (-160)  VS  Demian Maia (+130)

Let me kick this off by saying that I think Demian Maia (10-0) is profoundly impressive.  He is the definition of a ”BJJ wizard.”  Of his six fights inside the Octagon, every single one of them has ended via submission.  At this point in MMA’s development, we don’t even see very many submission finishes anymore because everyone has such good sub defense, and yet Maia always finds a way.  He has wins over Ed Herman, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry, and Chael Sonnen.  Now he has his sights set on middleweight contender and seven-time King of Pancrase, Nate Marquardt (28-8-2).

Marquardt, who holds wins over Martin Kampmann, Wilson Gouveia, and Jeremy Horn–as well as a should-be win over Thales Leites in which he lost the match purely on point deductions–should be Maia’s biggest test to date.  He is a solid, well-rounded fighter who is dangerous both on his feet and on the ground.  He has won fights via KO, TKO, submission, and decision.  In short, while he may not be as refined in any single area as Maia is at BJJ, he makes up for it by being able to take the fight anywhere and constantly threaten his opponent in all facets of the game.

Unfortunately for Maia, his BJJ and some decent GnP is about all he’s got.  His stand up isn’t useful for much more than setting up take downs, he usually gasses visibly in the second round and if he gets mounted, he takes quite a few shots before he finds a way out of the position.
An excellent ground fighter–even a “wizard”–can only pull so many wins out of his Bag o’ Magical Subs, then he loses.  I think that Marquardt will be a little too much for Maia.  He’ll have the physical strength and fight IQ to avoid Maia’s submission attempts while controlling his opponent and outpointing him.  He knows that Maia is great on the ground, so expect him to avoid getting too deep into that aspect of the fight.  I predict that he’ll spend a lot of time trying to keep it on the feet, where he has an exceptional advantage, and perhaps some GnP from a safe position while pressing a downed Maia against the cage.  With that being said, fighters like Maia scare me.  Anyone who is exceptionally good at either submitting opponents or knocking them out has the potential to end a fight at any time, even after getting beat on for 2 1/2 rounds.  Therefore, I’m not as confident as many others are in a Marquardt victory,  and so advise a cautious play.  1 unit on Nate Marquardt.

Chris Leben (-150)  VS  Jake Rosholt (+120)

Chris “The Crippler” Leben (18-5) is a middle-of-the-road fighter who is good at a lot of things, but great at nothing.  He will never be a contender.  He has lots of wins over other middle-of-the-road guys, but tends to lose when he fights someone above his level.  Nevertheless, there is one thing that he is very good at:  Beating on guys who are new to the UFC.  He’s the ultimate gatekeeper:  Beatable, but a solid test for anyone.  His opponent for this fight, Jake Rosholt (5-1), is an up and comer trying to make a name for himself and find his place in the UFC.  His previous outing and only fight in the organization ended just 1 minute 3 seconds into the first round, when Dan Miller slipped on a guillotine and forced him to tap.

Jake Rosholtis a Division I wrestling champ and, with the help of Team Takedown, has done a pretty good job of transferring those skills to MMA.  After rolling through 4 straight opponents in local orgs and on HDNet, he was invited to the WEC to face Nissen Osterneck.  He won this fight by TKO in the second round, but it was a sloppy affair.  Despite the fact that Osterneck is primarily a submission fighter, he was able to outstrike Rosholton the feet and had him rocked several times.  After about half of the first round, both fighters were clearly gassed and the fight was stopped in the middle of the second with Rosholt on top of Osterneck, obviously exhausted and dropping half-hearted punches that the equally-exhausted Osterneck couldn’t do much about.  From there he transitioned to the UFC, where his first, and thus far only, fight was his ill-fated meeting with Dan Miller.

Ultimately, I believe that Rosholt has a legitimate chance to win this fight.  With his excellent wrestling, he has the ability to take Leben down and control him for a decision win.  However, Chris has demonstrated solid take-down defense in past fights and that will be no easy feat.  Meanwhile, as he’s attempting to wrestle Chris to the ground, he will be forced to deal with his opponent’s stand up game, which is assuredly better than Osterneck’s.   Furthermore, Leben has pretty decent cardio and if he finds himself on his back, his defensive BJJ is not bad as he is able to minimize damage and pepper his opponent with a lot of little strikes and body kicks to wear his opponent down.  The primary point of concern for Chris is the difficulty he obviously has in getting out from under an opponent once they’re on top of him.  We saw this both in his fight with Kalib Starnes and his fight with Jason MacDonald.  But I’m willing to go out on a limb and predict that this will not be an insurmountable obstacle for Leben.  I think he’ll be able to find the opportunity to use his striking to put Rosholt down and finish the fight by TKO in the second round.  However, one word of caution:  While I do believe that there is value in Leben at -150, I also believe that this is a volatile bet, as Rosholt has a very clear path to victory and Leben has had problems with wrestlers in the past.  If you have a low risk tolerance, then you may want to stay away from this one.  But if not, I suggest a small .75 unit bet on Chris Leben.

Matt Serra will be in attendance at Wizard World Philadelphia,  a comics and pop culture convention set for June 19-21 at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. He will meet fans, sign autographs and give a sneak peek at his Round 5 figurine, which is scheduled for release in late July/early August.  Matt will be on site at Wizard World on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. TNA Wrestling will also have a presence, with stars Tracy Brooks, Demolition, “The Million Dollar Man” Ted DiBiase and Jerry “The King” Lawler among the notables. Other special guests in attendance during the three-day event include actor Edward James Olmos, actress Kristanna Loken (Terminator 3), Lou Ferrigno (The Hulk) and dozens of comic book artists and writers. See the Wizard World website for a complete list of guests.

BRANDON “THE TRUTH” VERA SEMINAR June 20th

At The Buffalo Training Center
Clarence Center, NY

$75 advanced or $90 at the door
Join us for a day of food, fun and fighting. Check out BTC and meet our pro-fighters.
Anyone and everyone is welcome.
No Experience Necessary

The UFC’s Brandon Vera will be conducting a two hour seminar from 2:00-4:00. Open House from 12:00-5:00
716-406-2616 BuffaloTC@me.com
www.buffalotrainingcenter.com