Welcome to the first in a series of articles in which I try to help you, the gambler, take the gamble out of betting on MMA by offering an informed opinion on upcoming MMA events and the fights in which the smart bettor can gain an edge.  You can make money by betting on your favorite sport, and throughout the coming months I intend to offer my picks with a full analysis of each fight that I feel is worth throwing your hard earned money on.  I will also be keeping a public record of my virtual bankroll–that we still start off at 0 units–and its ups and downs, with the goal of seeing it slowly trend upward  as each new event passes.

Note:  All betting lines come by way of Bodog.  They are trusted, fast and offering a 10% bonus on deposits for new account.  Lines may shift, so check the Bodog lines by clicking HERE or the Bodog Lines link at the top of the site.

 Randy Couture (-180)  VS  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)

Randy Couture (16-9) takes on Antonio Nogueira (31-5-1) in this bout between aging warriors attempting to wind down their careers on an upswing.  However, despite being 13 years his senior, in many ways Couture has looked like the younger fighter as of late.  He was a game opponent against the monstrous Brock Lesnar, who later made very short and brutal work of then-interim heavyweight champ Frank Mir.  By contrast, Nogueira has looked decidedly zombie-like in his past few bouts.  He was rocked early by Heath Herring with a head kick and could have very well been finished in that fight had Herring not been so terrified of Nog’s ground game, but instead let Nog come back to take a decision; he was a walking punching bag against Tim Sylvia, before pulling a miracle sub out of nowhere; and he was thoroughly beaten down by Frank Mir in his last fight and finished for the first time in his career (yeah, staph infection, I know).  Many believe that Nogis simply no longer the fighter he once was and the beatings he has taken are beginning to catch up with him.

I believe that Couture will be ready for this fight.  He will be healthier in mind and body and ready for a win after tasting defeat at the hands of Lesnar.  I think that he is better than Nogueira in all aspects but one:  the submission/ground game.  Randy has better boxing, is better in the clinch, and possesses superior wrestling.  I think that he will use all of these skills to control and outpoint Nogueira while keeping himself out of harm’s way on the ground.  If Nog comes in fully recovered from his condition during the Mir fight, expect Randy to win via decision.  If not, expect a TKO.  Now with that said, there’s no denying that Nog has a special ability to pull subs out of thin air, and that’s always a possibility.  He could possibly be a worthwhile underdog bet, but not at +150.  Therefore, for all the reasons listed above I suggest a 1 unit play on Randy Couture.

Keith Jardine (-155)  VS  Thiago Silva (+125)

The technoviking Keith Jardine (14-5-1) meets the Brazilian bomber Thiago Silva (13-1) in the octagon at 102, with both fighters hungry for a win after suffering losses by way of Quentin “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida, respectively.  I feel that ultimately this fight is a mismatch.  What we have is a mid-level fighter in Silva trying to move up to the next level.  We’ve seen this before, most recently in Michael Bisping’s bout against Dan Henderson.  Unfortunately for Bisping, it resulted in him going sleepy-time at a most inopportune moment.

As a fighter, Jardine is an anomaly.  How does a guy who can take on and beat the likes of Brandon Vera and former light heavyweight champs Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell also have losses to Houston Alexander and Stephan Bonnar?  Despite the fact that he does seem to have some weird inconsistency problem, I think that just as likely an explanation is that he is a maturing fighter.  Experience counts for a lot and I don’t think that the guy who dropped a fight to Bonnar is the same guy who will be facing Thiago Silva come August 29th.

Keith Jardine has shown that he can beat anyone on any day, even the guys at the top of the division.  I can’t say that I have the same faith in Silva.  Don’t get me wrong, with his brawling Chuteboxe style, he has all the makings of a fine mid-level fighter.  He has wins over James Irvin, Tomasz Drwal, and Houston Alexander.  But to be perfectly honest, I think that fighting guys like that is exactly where he belongs.  He basically follows the same game plan every time:  Rush in, get rocked, lose the first minute or two while suckering his non-ground-game-savvy opponent into taking him down, and then find his way to the mount so that he can pound away until the ref pulls him off.  This is the sort of thing that works perfectly against the Houston Alexanders of the world–and to his credit once he gets on top he seems very hard for fighters to buck off–but I think he’s going to need more than that to beat Jardine.  In my opinion he has one way to win this fight, and that’s to rush in and surprise Jardine with pure aggression in the same way that Wanderlei Silva did when he was crushed him inside of one minute.  Barring that, I have little doubt that Jardine will use his take-down defense, leg kicks, and pinpoint punches to pick Silva apart en route to a decision win, if not a TKO.  My suggestion?  1.5 units on Keith Jardine. 

Brandon Vera (-200)  VS  Krzysztof Soszynski (+160)

Brandon Vera (10-3) continues his light heavyweight romp through the rankings, this time taking on TUF  season 8 alumni and IFL veteran Krzysztof Soszynski(18-8-1).  Vera, former heavyweight title contender who once pompously proclaimed that he would one day hold both the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles, has realized that he is undersized for the HW division.  Instead of going up against the Lesnars and Carwins of the world, he has instead decided to drop down to LHW, where he has failed to make the splash that he was hoping for.

With that said, he is 2-1 at LHW and could very well be 3-0 if not for losing a very close decision to Keith Jardine.  I personally believe that Vera has been overrated in the past and has never had what it takes to beat the very top fighters of whatever division he chooses to fight in.  However, I do believe that he will beat most everyone else.  Of his three career losses, all have been against top talent, and his fight with Febricio Werdum ended controversially, with many people decrying an early stoppage.  I feel that what we have here is a situation very similar to Jardine VS Silva, in which one fighter is attempting to move up to the next level of competition.  And as I predicted for that fight, I do not think the move will be a successful one.  Soszynski is currently riding a 6 fight win streak.  While that’s very impressive and I do feel like the guy has a lot of talent, most of his wins have come against mid-level guys.  Submitting Brian Stann (who is known to have almost no ground game) and KOing Andre Gusmao (who is now 0-2 in the UFC)  is not the same as facing a fighter of Vera’s caliber.  Vera has never been submitted in his career, so Soszynski slapping on his trademark kimura is probably out.  Furthermore, I also don’t think that he will be able to control Vera on the ground or outpoint him in a striking war.  That leaves one path to victory for Krzysztof:  He must either knock Vera out or daze him badly enough to rush in for the TKO.  I don’t think this is outside of the realm of possibility, as he has demonstrated that he does, in fact, have KO power.  But I think that ultimately Brandon Vera will be able to use his superior muay thai and solid take-down defense to pick his opponent apart and secure a victory by way of a unanimous decision.  This line initially opened at -115 and a good bit of the value has already been bet out of it.  Nevertheless, I give Vera a 70% chance of winning this  fight (-233) so there’s still a little left for those of you who didn’t hop on the Veramobile early on.  1.5 units goes the way of the Phillipines.

Nate Marquardt (-160)  VS  Demian Maia (+130)

Let me kick this off by saying that I think Demian Maia (10-0) is profoundly impressive.  He is the definition of a ”BJJ wizard.”  Of his six fights inside the Octagon, every single one of them has ended via submission.  At this point in MMA’s development, we don’t even see very many submission finishes anymore because everyone has such good sub defense, and yet Maia always finds a way.  He has wins over Ed Herman, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry, and Chael Sonnen.  Now he has his sights set on middleweight contender and seven-time King of Pancrase, Nate Marquardt (28-8-2).

Marquardt, who holds wins over Martin Kampmann, Wilson Gouveia, and Jeremy Horn–as well as a should-be win over Thales Leites in which he lost the match purely on point deductions–should be Maia’s biggest test to date.  He is a solid, well-rounded fighter who is dangerous both on his feet and on the ground.  He has won fights via KO, TKO, submission, and decision.  In short, while he may not be as refined in any single area as Maia is at BJJ, he makes up for it by being able to take the fight anywhere and constantly threaten his opponent in all facets of the game.

Unfortunately for Maia, his BJJ and some decent GnP is about all he’s got.  His stand up isn’t useful for much more than setting up take downs, he usually gasses visibly in the second round and if he gets mounted, he takes quite a few shots before he finds a way out of the position.
An excellent ground fighter–even a “wizard”–can only pull so many wins out of his Bag o’ Magical Subs, then he loses.  I think that Marquardt will be a little too much for Maia.  He’ll have the physical strength and fight IQ to avoid Maia’s submission attempts while controlling his opponent and outpointing him.  He knows that Maia is great on the ground, so expect him to avoid getting too deep into that aspect of the fight.  I predict that he’ll spend a lot of time trying to keep it on the feet, where he has an exceptional advantage, and perhaps some GnP from a safe position while pressing a downed Maia against the cage.  With that being said, fighters like Maia scare me.  Anyone who is exceptionally good at either submitting opponents or knocking them out has the potential to end a fight at any time, even after getting beat on for 2 1/2 rounds.  Therefore, I’m not as confident as many others are in a Marquardt victory,  and so advise a cautious play.  1 unit on Nate Marquardt.

Chris Leben (-150)  VS  Jake Rosholt (+120)

Chris “The Crippler” Leben (18-5) is a middle-of-the-road fighter who is good at a lot of things, but great at nothing.  He will never be a contender.  He has lots of wins over other middle-of-the-road guys, but tends to lose when he fights someone above his level.  Nevertheless, there is one thing that he is very good at:  Beating on guys who are new to the UFC.  He’s the ultimate gatekeeper:  Beatable, but a solid test for anyone.  His opponent for this fight, Jake Rosholt (5-1), is an up and comer trying to make a name for himself and find his place in the UFC.  His previous outing and only fight in the organization ended just 1 minute 3 seconds into the first round, when Dan Miller slipped on a guillotine and forced him to tap.

Jake Rosholtis a Division I wrestling champ and, with the help of Team Takedown, has done a pretty good job of transferring those skills to MMA.  After rolling through 4 straight opponents in local orgs and on HDNet, he was invited to the WEC to face Nissen Osterneck.  He won this fight by TKO in the second round, but it was a sloppy affair.  Despite the fact that Osterneck is primarily a submission fighter, he was able to outstrike Rosholton the feet and had him rocked several times.  After about half of the first round, both fighters were clearly gassed and the fight was stopped in the middle of the second with Rosholt on top of Osterneck, obviously exhausted and dropping half-hearted punches that the equally-exhausted Osterneck couldn’t do much about.  From there he transitioned to the UFC, where his first, and thus far only, fight was his ill-fated meeting with Dan Miller.

Ultimately, I believe that Rosholt has a legitimate chance to win this fight.  With his excellent wrestling, he has the ability to take Leben down and control him for a decision win.  However, Chris has demonstrated solid take-down defense in past fights and that will be no easy feat.  Meanwhile, as he’s attempting to wrestle Chris to the ground, he will be forced to deal with his opponent’s stand up game, which is assuredly better than Osterneck’s.   Furthermore, Leben has pretty decent cardio and if he finds himself on his back, his defensive BJJ is not bad as he is able to minimize damage and pepper his opponent with a lot of little strikes and body kicks to wear his opponent down.  The primary point of concern for Chris is the difficulty he obviously has in getting out from under an opponent once they’re on top of him.  We saw this both in his fight with Kalib Starnes and his fight with Jason MacDonald.  But I’m willing to go out on a limb and predict that this will not be an insurmountable obstacle for Leben.  I think he’ll be able to find the opportunity to use his striking to put Rosholt down and finish the fight by TKO in the second round.  However, one word of caution:  While I do believe that there is value in Leben at -150, I also believe that this is a volatile bet, as Rosholt has a very clear path to victory and Leben has had problems with wrestlers in the past.  If you have a low risk tolerance, then you may want to stay away from this one.  But if not, I suggest a small .75 unit bet on Chris Leben.