Been a while since I’ve posted.  I do apologize MMA fans.  Things have just been so busy with work, school, and attempts to take over the world.  Nevertheless, I have returned and I think I’ve got some good picks for you guys on this one.  Betting lines are primarily based on BODOG LIVE MMA LINES.

Good results of +2.24 units at UFC 103 brings my overall total to +.39u.  Dos Santos, Griffin, and Dos Anjos–our three biggest bets–all came through for us.  My only regret is not going heavier on Dos Santos.  Clearly, Cro Cop is not the man he once was.  Though a very special part of me took delight in seeing Dos Santos dismantle his opponent, it was also sad to see a legendary warrior look absolutely terrified to be in a fight.  Can he come back and secure a win at UFC 110?  Only time will tell, but that’s a discussion for another time.  I’m just happy to see that we’re now in the positives.  Now’s the time to really get ahead with UFC 108, a card that I think really favors the bettor, especially if you were fortunate enough to get many of the lines when they first opened.

Note:  All lines come by way of Bodog and BetUS.

Junior Dos Santos (-300) vs Gilbert Yvel (+240)

Hey, look who it is!  It’s Junior Dos Santos (9-1)!  The same kickboxer-turned-MMArtist who won us money at UFC 103 is back to do it again at 108!  And I am confident that he will be able to do this.  To say that I’ve been impressed by JDS is an understatement.  I find the combination of speed, power, and precision that he’s displayed in his three UFC fights to be nothing short of awesome.  The only thing that raises questions in my mind about his ability is the quality of opponents he’s faced.  Werdum, while most likely being next in line for a title shot had he won his fight with JDS, has never been known for his striking and, in my opinion, he has looked pretty lackluster in his Strikeforce bouts since he was released from the UFC.  Struve, while being a fine competitor, is young and inexperienced.  And Cro Cop, while a legend, is fading fast.  Nevertheless, I would bet on Junior Dos Santos against ANY heavyweight in the UFC right now, provided the odds are right, and I think that he may be the one to take Brock’s title away from him.

Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1, 1 NC), the man who drew the short straw to face JDS in this upcoming bout, is a powerful striker who is coming off of a recent KO of Pedro Rizzo and is 8-1 in his last 9 fights.  As impressive as this is, he’s a one-trick pony who can punch hard, but that’s about it.  His technique is sloppy, he moves at about half the speed of JDS, and his ground skills are non-existent.  It should be noted that with heavyweights, it only takes one punch to put a fighter out and Yvel has a real chance to land that punch.  However, I think that the chance of this happening is even less than the 29% that the oddsmakers are giving him.  I expect JDS to outclass his opponent in all facets of the game.  On the feet, JDS will be faster, more technical, and probably at least as powerful; on the ground, where Yvel is a fish out of water, JDS, who is rumored to have very solid ground skills, should be able to dominate his opponent.  Therefore, even at this high price, I think JDS is well worth a bet.  3 units on Junior Dos Santos.

Martin Kampmann (-225) vs Jacob Volkmann (+185)

LOL.

Man, Joe Silva’s really making it hard on Volkmann.  First he gets to lose to Paulo Thiago and now the Hitman.  Martin Kampmann (15-3), who holds wins over Drew McFedries, Thales Leites, and former WEC welterweight champ Carlos Condit, is a formidable fighter who is dangerous both standing and on the ground.  A kickboxer before venturing into the world of MMA, the Hitman not only can stand and strike, but also has solid grappling and submission skills which makes him dangerous no matter where the fight goes.  His opponent for this fight, Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann (9-1), had his UFC debut against the Kos Slayer, Paulo Thiago, in which he spent three rounds getting outgrappled and outclassed.  Despite Volkmann’s impressive record, all of his wins have come in smaller gateway orgs for the UFC, against guys that most people have never heard of .  While this in itself is not a bad thing–everyone has to work their way up–it also does not conclusively prove that he is ready for UFC level competition.  After seeing his performance against Thiago, I won’t say that he doesn’t deserve to be fighting for the organization, but for God’s sake, let the man get some wins and gain some confidence against lower level competitors.  Why throw him to the wolves immediately?

I expect this fight to be a relatively easy win for Kampmann.  Volkmann, a submission artist who appears to have no striking skills, should have nothing for Kampmann on the feet.  Not only does he simply not possess the necessary abilities, but he will be at a height , reach, and size disadvantage.  (Remember that Kampmann is a former long-time middleweight who dropped down to 170 only two fights ago.)  On the ground, it’s tough to call.  Six of Volkmann’s nine wins have come via submission, so it’s possible he may have an advantage there.  It will probably be in Kampmann’s best interest to not risk it and simply keep the fight standing where he should be able to dominate the action in spectacular fashion.  However, even if it does go to the ground, I expect that Kampmann’s strength and ground skills will be enough to keep him out of any serious danger.  3 units on Martin Kampmann.

Jake Ellenberger (-130) vs Mike Pyle (Even)

Anyone who saw Ellenberger/Condit at UFN 19 witnessed an absolute war and what is, in my opinion, one of the greatest first rounds in MMA history.  Jake Ellenberger (21-5) gave Condit the fight of his life and he would’ve won it by stoppage if it weren’t for a ref who had brought his A-game that night.  Over the course of 26 fights, Ellenberger has proven that he has great striking, real KO power, and good wrestling and submission skills.  The one chink in his armor that I can find is his cardio.  He tends to gas out in later rounds, or at least slow down noticeably.

Mike Pyle (19-6) is a submission specialist who holds wins over Shonie Carter and a young Jon Fitch.  Out of his 19 wins, 17 have come by submission.  In the UFC, he is 1-1, getting subbed in the first by Brock Larson and winning via guillotine against that assclown Chris Wilson (1-3 in the UFC).  His striking is very rudimentary, he has very little in terms of power, and despite the fact that he is a grappler, his wrestling leaves something to be desired.  His primary skill lies in his ability to stay patient until he sees an opening for a submission.  To give credit where credit is due, he is very good at that one thing, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to beat Ellenberger.  I predict that Pyle is going to get outstruck and outwrestled by Ellenberger, who will be smart enough to avoid Pyle’s subs and will take the fight either by (T)KO or decision.  I think a more accurate line for this fight would be -150/+120.  If you were paying attention when the lines came out, then you were able to get Ellenberger at -115.  But even at the current line I believe there’s value, so 1.3 units on Jake.

Steve Cantwell (+160) vs Vladimir Matyushenko (-200)

Steve Cantwell (7-3) faces UFC and IFL veteran Vladimir Matyushenko (23-4) in this light heavyweight match-up that is, in my opinion, very much a needed win for the last reigning and defending WEC LHW champion.  After dissolving the LHW division in the WEC, Zuffa brought the title holder over to the big leagues, with Cantwell making his UFC debut at UFN 16 against the Afro Samurai, Razak al-Hussan.  He impressively dislocated al-Hussan’s elbow with an armbar in a first round finish that got people talking, not only about his technique but also about his bewildering post-fight comments in which, referring to the elbow dislocation , he mentioned that he’s “always wanted to do that.”  However, since that fight, he’s gone 0-2 in the UFC, dropping decisions both to Luiz Cane and (suprisingly) Brian Stann.  Another loss could possibly spell doom for Cantwell’s run in the UFC, at least until he picks up some wins outside of the organization and finds his way back in.

Vladimir Matyushenko is a veteran fighter who has managed a career record of only four losses in 27 fights.  He has fought for the UFC, the IFL, and Affliction, among other MMA organizations.  He is a wrestling specialist who, while never being known as a striker, has shown improvements in that area in his last several fights.  What he lacks in technical precision, he makes up for in power.  On paper, Matyushenko’s advantages are numerous.  He’s a better grappler, he’s stronger, he has more punching power, he’s more experienced, and he’s faced–and beaten–better competition.  However, I think that Cantwell’s chances in this fight are really better than the 38% chance that they’re giving him.  He is undoubtedly the more technical fighter of the two and I suspect that he’ll also be faster.  Matyushenko, though experienced, is somewhat of an aging warrior and barely more than a year away from his 40th birthday.  Also, while it’s not his specialty, Cantwell is no slouch in the grappling department himself.  I think that if he can successfully stay outside of the clinch and pepper his opponent with strikes, Cantwell can take a decision here.  He’ll want to stay away from Vladimir’s takedowns and power punches while picking him apart with his superior kickboxing, which I think he has a reasonable chance of doing.  For that reason, I’m suggesting a moderate .5 unit bet on Steve Cantwell.

Paul Daley (-115) vs Dustin Hazelett (-115)

Paul “Semtex” Daley (22-8-2) made an impressive UFC debut at UFC 103 against Martin Kampmann, stopping him in the first round via TKO.  He is a proficient muay thai practitioner whose exceptional punching power has secured 17 (T)KOs in 22 wins.  His opponent, Dustin Hazelett (12-4), is a BJJ specialist, with 9 of his 12 wins coming by sub, many in the first round.

I expect this to be a close fight that could go either way.  Ultimately the winner should be determined by who is able to administer their specialty–striking or submission fighting–in the most dominant manner.  Out of Daley’s eight losses, five have come by submission, so clearly this is a weakspot in his game.  And of Hazelett’s four losses, two have come by TKO, most recently at the hands of Josh Koscheck at UFC 82.  I think the line on this one is fairly well set, though I’d probably call it a 55/45 split for Daley, bringing his true line closer to -122.  My reasoning is that Daley should be able to handle Hazelett on the feet and his takedown defense–clearly evidenced in his fights with John Alessio and, to a lesser extent, Nick Thompson–should prevent Dustin from getting the fight into his realm where he can he secure a submission.  I think that it will take a powerful takedown artist–someone who will really have to strength to work for the takedown and make it happen through brute force–to get Daley down and sub him and I’m not sure that Hazelett has this ability.  If you watch Hazelett’s fights with Tamdan McCrory and Diego Saraiva, you’ll notice that THEY took HIM down, not the other way around.  Daley won’t even think about doing this and therefore will not play to his opponent’s strengths.  With that said, I don’t want to underestimate Hazelett.  He has some very technical and creative submission skills, and I would not at all be surprised to see him make the submission-prone Daley tap out.  Probably a lot of variance in this fight, but I’d still give a small edge to Daley, at least enough for a 1 unit bet.

Suggested Bets:

Junior Dos Santos:  3 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann:  3 units to win 1.33 units
Jake Ellenberger:  1.3 units to win 1 unit
Steve Cantwell:  .5 units to win .8 units (Underdog pick for UFC 108)
Paul Daley:  1 unit to win .87 units