Results are 2-3 for my picks for UFC 102, which brings my overall total to -1.85 units.  Couture was unable to overcome a Nog who looked the best he has ever looked in the UFC, Jardine proved that his weakness against aggressive brawlers wasn’t just a 2-time fluke, and a chubby Leben came into his fight looking like he didn’t even train (and, in fact, there are reports suggesting that very thing).  On the other hand, Vera came in and performed much as I expected, winning a dominant decision over Soszynski, and Marquardt sent Maia into the upper atmosphere of the Earth.  Unfortunately, it was not enough to get us into the black.  Oh well, onward on and upward.  Let us now turn our attention to UFC 103, which will be coming up on September 19.  You might as well call it UFC 103:  The Return.  Not only will we be treated both Frank Trigg’s and Vitor Belfort’s first Octagon appearances in over four years, but Cro Cop is back and–he claims–better than ever and looking to make a run for the title.  For betting purposes,  overall there are some good bets here, but in my opinion the lines could be better.  You have to look hard to find the value and the margins are relatively narrow, but there is still money to be made at UFC 103 on Sept. 19th.

NOTE:  All lines come by way of Bodog.

Junior Dos Santos (-135) vs Mirko Cro Cop (+105)

Junior Dos Santos (8-1) exploded onto the UFC scene when, as an extremely heavy underdog, he landed a vicious uppercut and sent heavyweight contender Febricio Werdum into La-La Land.  He then went on to defeat up-and-comer Stefan Struve via TKO in the first minute of the first round of their bout at UFC 95 and has since been talked about as one of the hottest prospects in the heavyweight division.   In his native Brazil he built a 6-1 record in MMA and an 18-0 record in kickboxing.  He has fast hands, is very explosive, and possess devastating KO power.

Mirko Cro Cop (25-6-2) is a former PRIDE Open Weight Gran Prix champion and has fought and beaten a Who’s Who of legendary MMA fighters, including Kazushi Sakuraba, Mark Coleman, and Josh Barnett among others.  He has defeated notable opponents in K-1, including Jerome Le Banner and Mark Hunt.  His left high kick is synonymous with fools getting knocked out.  And he was expected to come across the ocean in 2007 and quickly establish himself as the premiere heavyweight fighter in the UFC.  Unfortunately for him and his legion of fans, that plan did not work out.  Suffering a shot-heard-round-the-world KO loss to Gabriel Gonzaga (via head kick, no less) and dropping a decision to Cheick Kongo, Cro Cop went 1-2 in his initial UFC run and quickly departed for Japan.

Most people believe that this fight will be determined by one thing:  Which Cro Cop shows up.  He claims that he is fully healed from the physical ailments that has kept him from fighting at 100% of his potential and that he is ready to make a run for the title.  If that’s true then Dos Santos is in trouble.  However, color me skeptical, but I’m not sure I can believe it.  Cro Cop hasn’t beaten a top-level opponent in–as of this writing–exactly 3 years to the day and even in his recent TKO victory against Mostapha Al-turk he didn’t look spectacular.  Dos Santos, on the other hand, is young, hungry, and looks ready to not merely have the torch passed, but to take it by force.  In my opinion he has all the tools to do so and Cro Cop will have his hands full with this young gun.  Provided Dos Santos can stay away from any of Cro Cop’s power shots then he should be able to use his speed and power to win this fight.  But if not, he might have to go retrieve his head from the third row.  If you can get Cro Cop at +120 or better, then it wouldn’t be a bad bet.  But at the current odds, I’d  suggest a 1 unit play on Junior Dos Santos.

Tyson Griffin (-285) vs Hermes Franca (+225)

Tyson Griffin (13-2) is a striker/wrestler who holds wins over Clay Guida, Gleison Tibau, and Urijah Faber and whose only two losses come from Frankie Edgar and  Sean Sherk.  Hermes Franca (19-7) is a striker/BJJ fighter who holds wins over Nate Diaz, Spencer Fisher, and Jamie Varner and who, coincidentally, also has losses to Frankie Edgar and Sean Sherk.

Both fighters bring unique skills and abilities into the cage and I expect a good fight.  Franca has recently been training with kickboxing wizard Rob Kaman and I believe that this is evident in the improved striking that he has displayed in his last several fights, including the absolute leg kick clinic that he put on against Marcus Aurelio.  He has also demonstrated that he has KO power in his hands and I think that the stand-up advantage in this one probably goes to Franca, but only by a small margin.  Likewise, he will also have an advantage in the BJJ department and is known for his explosive ability to pull a sub out of nowhere.  However, there’s one problem for Franca:  Griffin has never been KOd or submitted.  His only two losses have been by decision.  Furthermore, Griffin will have an exceptional advantage in the wrestling department and Franca has always demonstrated an extreme lack of take-down defense.  In the end, I expect this fight to look a lot like Franca/Sherk or Franca/Edgar.  Griffin will utilize his wrestling to take Franca down, control him, and punish him with effective GnP en route to a win via unanimous decision.  I think that even at the current line there is value in Griffin, as he wins this fight 75%-80% of time.  3 Units on Tyson Griffin.

Frank Trigg (+350) vs Josh Koscheck (-550)

Josh Koscheck (12-4) first gained exposure to UFC fans through his appearance on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter and has since gone on to become a Top 10 ranked welterweight, with notable wins over Diego Sanchez, Dustin Hazelett, and Chris Lytle.  He is an NCAA Division I wrestling champion who, as of late, has not only shown excellent wrestling technique but also much-improved standup.  Frank Trigg (19-6) is a UFC veteran, former UFC welterweight title contender, and former ICON Sport middleweight champion.  He holds a black belt in judo and was a 2000 Olympic Trials Finalist in wrestling.  He holds wins over Dennis Hallman, Jason Miller, and Edwin Dewees, and is 4-0 in his last four fights and 6-1 in his last 7.

I have to start by saying that Josh Koscheck has gained my respect.  He’s a fighter who has greatly improved his game since he began competing, morphing from a one-dimensional wrestler to a dynamic fighter who can take the fight anywhere.  He frequently demonstrates a never-say-die attitude and has a ton of heart.  In preparation for this article, I went back to watch his fight with Thiago Alves for a second time, and I was impressed by the fact that even when he was getting soundly beaten up, he kept coming forward and kept the fight competitive.  Most of his wins of late have come by way of his impressive striking, in which he does not merely box, but uses both his hands and feet to punish his opponents and secure victory.  This was evident in his TKO win over Dustin Hazelett as well as his highlight reel KO over Yoshiyuki Yoshida.  However, his win over Chris Lytle proved that he has not abandoned his wrestling roots, as he spent the majority of that bout controlling his opponent on the ground and GnPing his way to a unanimous decision.  With that said, I do believe that it’s a mistake to count Frank Trigg out of this fight.  He is a well-rounded fighter who, while perhaps not great in any single aspect of the game, is good in all aspects.  He can wrestle, he can strike, and he can secure a submission if the opportunity presents itself.  Furthermore, four of Trigg’s six losses are by submission and Koscheck hasn’t submitted anyone since 2006.  I believe that his takedown defense will make it difficult for Koscheck to get the fight to the ground, and on the feet anything can happen.  Believing he was the second coming of Chuck Liddell is what got Koscheck KTFO in his fight against Paulo Thiago.  Doing so again may prove to be his downfall against Trigg, who gave KO artist Robbie Lawler a decent run for his money in 2007 (up until the knockout, that is).  All in all, I would have to agree with consensus opinion that this is Koscheck’s fight to lose, but at +350 Trigg is being underrated and is worth a small bet.  .25u on Frank Trigg.

Rafael Dos Anjos (-125) vs Rob Emerson (-105)

Season 5 TUF alumni Rob Emerson (8-7) faces off against Rafael Dos Anjos (11-4) in this lightweight match up, with both fighters wanting to turn their ship around after losses to Kurt Pellegrino and Tyson Griffin, respectively.  This fight is particularly critical for Dos Anjos, whose only history in the UFC is going 0-2 in his two fights with the organization.  If he doesn’t win this one, then it could be the death blow to his career in the organization with only one thing lying in his future:  STRIKEFORCE.

Stylistically, I believe this is a good match up for Dos Anjos.  Emerson is primarily a striker and his abilities on the ground are limited.  Dos Anjos, on the other hand, is very strong on the ground and, at least in my opinion, occasionally shows some of the same technical pizazz that BJJ wizard Demian Maia is known for.  If this were a kickboxing match then Emerson should be the clear favorite, as he has very solid stand up skills combined with KO power, as evidenced by his 12 second knockout of Manny Gamburyan.  But this is MMA.  I think that Dos Anjos–whose hands actually aren’t that bad–will be able to hold his own on the feet long enough to get Emerson on the ground.  This may not be the easiest of tasks–Emerson has shown that he has decent, but not great, takedown defense–but it should be one he can accomplish.  After all, he was able to take Jeremy Stephens to the ground and dominate him for the first round of their fight and he was also able to engage A-class wrestler Tyson Griffin in a grappling battle in which he locked him up in one of the weirdest and most wicked leg compression techniques that we’ve ever seen in the sport (see above pic).  I believe that Emerson has one path to victory:  To catch Dos Anjos with a shot that puts him down and out.  Barring that very real, but unlikely, possibility, then Dos Anjos should be able to take this fight to the ground and win either via submission or unanimous decision.  When the lines first opened, Dos Anjos was the underdog across all books.  Even now, some still have him as the underdog, so if you have multiple accounts, shop around.  But underdog or favorite, money on Dos Anjos should be money well placed.  I’m looking forward to him gaining his first win in the Octagon.  1.5 units on Rafael Dos Anjos.

Cole Miller (+125) vs Efrain Escudero (-155)

Cole Miller (15-3) is a submission specialist with a 4-1 UFC record, including a unanimous decision win over Leonard Garcia and a submission win over Jorge Gurgel.  He currently trains out of Coconut Creek, Florida with American Top Team.  Efrain Escudero is the TUF Season 8 lightweight winner, having impressively defeated the much-hyped Phillipe Nover in the finals.  This is his first fight in the UFC since the end of that season of the show.

This is a difficult fight to call for the simple fact that we have no idea how Escudero will do in the UFC.  Time and again we see guys look very good on TUF and then either wash out or only look average once they have to step up in competition (I’m looking at you, Mac Danzig).  Will Escudero be able to perform at the same level against guys like Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout, much less Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, or Frankie Edgar?  Only time will tell.  But one thing is for sure, and that is that Cole Miller will provide a good test of his abilities.  With 15 wins and only 3 losses, he has proven that he is a tough fighter who knows how to win.  He has fought both in the United States and in Japan and he is one of the few lightweights who routinely finishes his opponents with his excellent submission skills.  Interestingly enough, both fighters have had the majority of their wins come by way of submission–10 for Miller and 9 for Escudero–and neither fighter have themselves been submitted in a fight.  This suggests that the bout will most likely be won in other ways (though after seeing Miller submit BJJ ace Gurgel, anything is possible and I would probably give a small edge in submissions to Miller).  In the stand up department, Miller may have a slight advantage due to his superior height and reach.  However, in the wrestling department, I would say that Efrain clearly is the leader.  He has very good takedowns and top control, and seems to be difficult for guys to escape from once he has his hands on them.  In the end, I’d say this fight is pretty close to a pick ‘em and at +125 I’d say Miller is worth a small bet due to his edge in experience and the fact that Escudero’s performance against true UFC competition is a question mark at this point.  We’ll find out soon enough if he deserves to be in the UFC.    .5 units on Cole Miller.

Suggested Bets

Junior Dos Santos:  1u to win .74u
Tyson Griffin:  3u to win 1.05u
Frank Trigg:  .25u to win .88u
Rafael Dos Anjos:  1.5u to win 1.2u
Cole Miller:  .5u to win .63u